Simulations

How would you bet? Lessons from a Biased Coin Flipping Experiment

Recently I listened to a podcast featuring Victor Haghani of Elm Partners, who described a fascinating coin-flipping experiment. The experiment was designed to be played for 30 minutes by participants in groups of 2-15 in university classrooms or office conference rooms, without consulting each other or the internet or other resources. To conduct the experiment, a custom web app was built for placing bets on a simulated coin with a 60% chance of coming up heads. Participants used their personal laptops or work computers to play. They were offered a stake of \(\$25\) to begin, with a promise of a check worth the final balance (subject to a caveat) in their game account. No out-of-pocket betting or any gimmicks. But they had to agree to remain in the room for 30 minutes.